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TROPICAL STORM ERIKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052015
0900 UTC TUE AUG 25 2015
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF ANTIGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND
ANGUILLA.
 
THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF CURACAO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MONTSERRAT
* ANTIGUA
* BARBUDA
* ST. KITTS AND NEVIS
* ANGUILLA
* SABA
* ST. EUSTATIUS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ERIKA...AS WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR ADDITIONAL AREAS
LATER TODAY.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N  49.4W AT 25/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT  17 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE  70SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE  60SE   0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N  49.4W AT 25/0900Z
AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N  48.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 15.2N  51.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 16.0N  54.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 16.9N  57.9W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 17.6N  61.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 19.3N  66.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  30SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 21.5N  71.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 24.0N  75.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N  49.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 
 
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