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NOAA NOAA United States Department of Commerce

Hurricane DANNY


ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
                                                                    
HURRICANE DANNY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  18                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042015               
2100 UTC SAT AUG 22 2015                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANNY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H.                                         
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
MARATHON FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
ANDROS         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
GREAT EXUMA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)
 
MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   3( 9)
 
GRAND TURK     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   2(11)
 
CAMAGUEY       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
GUANTANAMO BAY 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)
 
LES CAYES      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)
 
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)
 
CAPE BEATA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   6(10)   1(11)
 
SANTO DOMINGO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   5(11)   X(11)
 
PONCE          34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  13(14)   1(15)   1(16)
PONCE          50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
PONCE          64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
SAN JUAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  16(18)   1(19)   X(19)
SAN JUAN       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
SAINT THOMAS   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)  16(23)   X(23)   X(23)
SAINT THOMAS   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
SAINT CROIX    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)  13(21)   X(21)   X(21)
SAINT CROIX    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
SAINT CROIX    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
SAINT MAARTEN  34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  21(24)   7(31)   X(31)   X(31)
SAINT MAARTEN  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
SAINT MAARTEN  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  X   X( X)   6( 6)  21(27)   4(31)   X(31)   X(31)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
BARBUDA        34  X   1( 1)  15(16)  20(36)   2(38)   X(38)   X(38)
BARBUDA        50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
BARBUDA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
ANTIGUA        34  X   1( 1)  14(15)  20(35)   1(36)   X(36)   X(36)
ANTIGUA        50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
ANTIGUA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
GUADELOUPE     34  X   1( 1)  11(12)  10(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)
GUADELOUPE     50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
GUADELOUPE     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
AVES           34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
DOMINICA       34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
MARTINIQUE     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN                                                    
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