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NOAA NOAA United States Department of Commerce

Tropical Depression FOUR


ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1        
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042015               
1500 UTC TUE AUG 18 2015                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WAS LOCATED NEAR    
LATITUDE 10.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 36.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
GUADELOUPE     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
DOMINICA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
MARTINIQUE     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
SAINT LUCIA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
SAINT VINCENT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
BARBADOS       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART                                                  
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