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TROPICAL STORM DANNY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042015
0300 UTC SUN AUG 23 2015
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* ST. MAARTEN
* GUADELOUPE...ST. BARTHELEMY...AND ST. MARTIN
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 TO 48
HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE U. S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO
RICO...AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
DANNY.  ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS ON SUNDAY.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N  54.7W AT 23/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT  13 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 50NE  30SE  20SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  60SE  30SW  75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N  54.7W AT 23/0300Z
AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N  54.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 15.9N  56.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  20SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 16.4N  59.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  20SE  10SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 16.9N  61.9W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  20SE   0SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 17.7N  64.4W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 19.5N  69.3W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 21.7N  73.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N  54.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
 
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