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Hurricane DANNY


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HURRICANE DANNY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042015
0900 UTC SAT AUG 22 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANNY.  TROPICAL STORM WATCHES WILL LIKELY
BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N  50.8W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT   9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  982 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  10SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 50NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE  45SE  60SW  75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N  50.8W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N  50.3W

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 15.4N  52.6W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 15.8N  55.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 16.3N  57.6W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 16.8N  60.1W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 18.1N  64.9W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 19.7N  69.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 21.0N  74.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N  50.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


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