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TROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042015
500 AM AST MON AUG 24 2015

Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Danny
this morning indicate that Danny still has winds that support
keeping the cyclone as a tropical storm. However, due to a strong
burst of deep convection containing tops of -80 deg C and intense
lightning activity that has developed near the alleged center, the
aircraft has been unable to provide an exact center fix. This
avoidance is for aircrew and aircraft safety reasons. However,
satellite intensity estimates of T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and SAB also
support keeping Danny as a tropical storm.

The initial motion estimate is a slower 275/08 kt. UW-CIMSS shear
analyses indicate that Danny is now encountering west-northwesterly
mid-level shear of around 5 kt, which could explain the slow down
in forward speed since the previous advisory. That being said,
there is no significant change to the previous track forecast or
reasoning. The subtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone is
expected to remain strong for the next few days, which should force
Danny on a westward to west-northwestward track until the system
dissipates in about 72 hours. The official track forecast is
basically just an update and extension of the previous advisory,
and lies close to the GFEX and TVCN consensus models.

Danny is expected to remain a sheared tropical cyclone or low
until dissipation occurs. In the short term, however, there could be
some minor fluctuations in intensity today as the deep-layer
southwesterly vertical wind shear decreases some before increasing
again and becoming stronger by Tuesday morning. Mid-level dry air
with humidity values decreasing to less than 40 percent should also
enhance the weakening process. As result, Danny is expected to
become a tropical depression by this evening, degenerate into a
remnant low on Tuesday, and dissipate by Wednesday. The NHC
intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and the ICON
intensity consensus model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0900Z 15.8N  60.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  24/1800Z 16.1N  62.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  25/0600Z 16.5N  65.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  25/1800Z 17.0N  67.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  26/0600Z 17.4N  71.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  27/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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