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TROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042015
1100 PM AST SUN AUG 23 2015

Danny remains a sheared tropical cyclone.  The low-level center is
exposed well to the southwest of a small of area of deep convection
that has formed within the past couple of hours.  An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft that investigated Danny this
evening measured tropical-storm-force winds on the SFMR over a
small area close to the convection.  Based on these data, Danny
remains a 35-kt tropical storm for this advisory.  The environment
ahead of Danny is expected to remain unfavorable.  Moderate
southwesterly shear and dry mid-tropospheric air should cause
weakening, and Danny is forecast to become a tropical depression
on Monday, and degenerate into a remnant low or dissipate in a
couple of days.

The tropical cyclone is moving westward or 270/13 kt. The track
forecast reasoning remains unchanged as Danny is expected to move
westward to west-northwestward to the south of a low- to mid-level
ridge over the western Atlantic.  The new NHC track forecast is
essentially an update of the previous advisory and lies along the
southern edge of the guidance envelope.

Since the chance of tropical-storm-force winds has decreased in
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, the tropical storm watch
for those areas has been discontinued.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0300Z 15.6N  59.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  24/1200Z 15.9N  61.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  25/0000Z 16.3N  64.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  25/1200Z 16.8N  67.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  26/0000Z 17.5N  69.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

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