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TROPICAL STORM BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022015
400 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

Bill has changed little in organization on satellite images over
the past several hours.  Most of the deep convection is occurring
over the eastern semicircle.  Radar data show some banding features
over the southern portion of the circulation.  Surface observations
over the western Gulf of Mexico suggest that the intensity remains
near 45 kt.  Since there is little time remaining before the center
reaches the coast, no significant increase in strength is likely
before landfall.  Weakening will commence later today after the
center moves inland over Texas.  There are some differences in the
evolution of the cyclone over the U.S. in the global models over the
next few days.  The official forecast shows the circulation
dissipating within 5 days, which is a blend of the GFS and ECMWF
predictions.

The initial motion estimate, 310/11, has changed little from the
previous advisory.  Bill should be steered mainly by the flow
around the southwestern and western periphery of a mid-level high
centered over the southeastern U.S. during the next day or two.
Thereafter, mid-level westerlies should cause Bill's remnant low to
turn northeastward to east-northeastward.  Most of the dynamical
track models are in good agreement, and the official forecast is
closest to a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF solutions.

Given that Bill has a broad circulation, one should not focus on the
exact track, since strong winds and heavy rains are occurring well
away from the center.  To reiterate, the main hazard from Bill
should be heavy rainfall and flooding across portions of eastern
Texas over the next day or two.  Please see products from your local
National Weather Service office for more information on the flood
threat.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/0900Z 27.9N  95.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  16/1800Z 29.0N  96.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 24H  17/0600Z 30.6N  97.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 36H  17/1800Z 32.6N  97.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 48H  18/0600Z 34.5N  96.6W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 72H  19/0600Z 36.3N  94.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 96H  20/0600Z 39.0N  88.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H  21/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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