Hurricane VANCE

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BULLETIN
HURRICANE VANCE ADVISORY NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014
700 AM PST TUE NOV 04 2014

...VANCE RAPIDLY WEAKENING...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM PST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 109.6W
ABOUT 100 MI...155 KM ENE OF SOCORRO ISLAND
ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM SW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MAZATLAN NORTHWARD TO TOPOLOBAMPO MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF VANCE.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE
REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF MEXICO LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM PST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE VANCE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.6 WEST. VANCE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF VANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR OR
OVER THE WESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA
ON WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...AND VANCE COULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125
MILES...205 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 977 MB...28.85 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE COMBINATION OF VANCE AND MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO
8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 12 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER
THE STATES OF SINALOA...NAYARIT....AND DURANGO IN WESTERN MEXICO.
THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY VANCE WILL BE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR TODAY AND
TONIGHT.  THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.  PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1000 AM PST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...100 PM PST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

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