Tropical Storm VANCE

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TROPICAL STORM VANCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014
2100 UTC TUE NOV 04 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MAZATLAN NORTHWARD TO TOPOLOBAMPO MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF VANCE.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE
REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF MEXICO LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 108.6W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  30 DEGREES AT  12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  80SE  40SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 108.6W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 108.9W

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 22.1N 107.8W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  70SE  40SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 24.4N 106.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 26.5N 106.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.4N 108.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


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