Hurricane VANCE

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HURRICANE VANCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014
0300 UTC TUE NOV 04 2014

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM
MAZATLAN NORTHWARD TO TOPOLOBAMPO MEXICO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MAZATLAN NORTHWARD TO TOPOLOBAMPO MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF VANCE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 110.6W AT 04/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  20 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  965 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT.......110NE 110SE  60SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 210SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 110.6W AT 04/0300Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 110.8W

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 18.8N 110.1W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  60SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.5N 109.1W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  50SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 22.7N 108.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  40SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 24.6N 107.9W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 25.5N 108.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 110.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


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