Tropical Storm VANCE
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TROPICAL STORM VANCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014
1500 UTC FRI OCT 31 2014
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 100.8W AT 31/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OR 195 DEGREES AT 3 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 100.8W AT 31/1500Z
AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 100.5W
FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 9.7N 101.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 9.6N 103.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 10.2N 105.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 11.4N 107.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 40SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 15.0N 109.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 80NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 19.3N 107.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 23.5N 105.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.1N 100.8W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/2100Z
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FORECASTER BLAKE
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