Hurricane VANCE

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HURRICANE VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014
700 AM PST TUE NOV 04 2014


Conventional and microwave satellite data indicate that Vance is
losing organization due to the effects of 35-40 kt of vertical wind
shear.  The cloud pattern has become elongated, and the low-level
center is near the southern edge of the convection.  The initial
intensity is lowered to 75 kt based on various satellite intensity
estimates, and this could be a bit generous.

The initial motion is 025/11.  The GFS, ECMWF, GFDL, and Florida
State Superensemble models forecast Vance to move generally
northeastward and make landfall on the coast of Mexico in 24-36
hours.  The official forecast does likewise, and the new forecast is
similar to that of the previous advisory.  It cannot be ruled out
that Vance will completely shear apart before landfall, with the
low-level center moving slower toward the northeast than currently
forecast.

The large-scale models forecast even stronger shear over Vance
during the next 24-36 hours, and this should cause rapid weakening.
The new intensity forecast follows this scenario and is in best
agreement with the SHIPS model.  Although Vance could weaken to a
depression by the time it makes landfall, given the uncertainties in
intensity prediction it remains prudent to have a tropical storm
watch for portions of the coast of Mexico.

Moisture from Vance and its remnants should spread northeastward
across Mexico and into the south-central United States during the
next several days.  This is likely to produce heavy rains over
portions of these areas through Thursday or Friday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/1500Z 19.3N 109.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  05/0000Z 21.0N 108.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  05/1200Z 23.2N 107.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  06/0000Z 25.3N 107.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 48H  06/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

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