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Hurricane VANCE (Text)

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HURRICANE VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  20...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014
700 PM PST MON NOV 03 2014

Corrected text to read tropical storm watch issued

Vance has maintained a well-defined central dense overcast pattern
since the previous advisory, although the eye has become less
distinct in infrared and recent SSMI/S microwave imagery. However,
cloud tops colder than -80C now completely encircle the remnant eye
feature in infrared imagery. An average of Dvorak current intensity
estimates yields a value of 96 kt, so the initial intensity is
being maintained at 95 kt.

Vance has started to recurve to the north-northeast and the initial
motion estimate is now 020/11 kt. The hurricane is expected to move
in a general north-northeastward to northeastward direction within
south-southwesterly steering flow between the subtropical ridge to
the east and an approaching deep-layer trough to the west. As a
result, Vance is expected to pass just east of Socorro Island
tonight and be near the southwestern coast of Mexico in 48 hours or
so. The NHC model guidance is in decent agreement on this scenario,
and the official forecast track is just an update of the previous
advisory track and lies close to the blend of the GFS and ECMWF
model solutions.

The latest SHIPS guidance indicates south-southwesterly vertical
wind shear of at least 30 affecting Vance. Although this estimate
could be a little overdone given the impressive infrared satellite
signature, a 0134 UTC SSMI/S microwave overpass suggests that the
circulation is starting to tilt downstream to the northeast due to
the shear. The vertical shear is forecast by all of the global
models to steadily increase throughout the forecast period, which
should result in steady or rapid weakening until landfall occurs in
about 48 hours. The official intensity forecast is similar to the
previous advisory and is close to a blend of the SHIPS and LGEM
models, which is just slightly above the consensus model ICON. The
forecast still calls for Vance to become a tropical depression just
offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico. However, due to the
uncertainty in the exact timing of the expected weakening trend, the
Government of Mexico has issued a tropical storm watch for portions
of southwestern mainland Mexico.

Moisture from Vance and its remnants should spread northeastward
across Mexico and into the south-central United States during the
next several days.  This is likely to produce heavy rains over
portions of these areas through Thursday or Friday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/0300Z 17.4N 110.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  04/1200Z 18.8N 110.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  05/0000Z 20.5N 109.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  05/1200Z 22.7N 108.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  06/0000Z 24.6N 107.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  07/0000Z 25.5N 108.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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