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Hurricane VANCE (Text)

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HURRICANE VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014
700 AM PST MON NOV 03 2014

Recent microwave images show that the inner core of Vance remains
vertically aligned, however, the outflow is becoming increasingly
restricted over the southwestern portion of the circulation due to
southwesterly shear.  Vance has likely peaked in intensity and the
initial wind speed is held at 90 kt for this advisory, which is in
agreement with the latest Dvorak CI-numbers from both TAFB and SAB.
The vertical shear over Vance is forecast to dramatically increase
during the next 24 to 48 hours.  In fact, the SHIPS model predicts
shear to increase to 37 kt in 24 hours, and to 54 kt in 48 hours.
These very hostile conditions should cause the hurricane to rapidly
weaken during the next couple of days, and Vance is forecast to
become a tropical depression in 48 hours. Although a 72-hour
forecast as a remnant low is indicated, it is highly possible that
this system will have dissipated by that time.

The initial motion estimate is north-northwest or 345/10 kt.  Vance
has started its much anticipated northward turn ahead of an
approaching mid-latitude trough.  Vance should turn northward this
afternoon, and then recurve north-northeastward ahead of the trough
tomorrow.  There continues to be some run-to-run inconsistencies in
the model guidance as to how vertically coherent Vance will remain
and how fast it will move north-northeastward.  The GFS and ECMWF
now bring a weakening cyclone to the coast, meanwhile the HWRF and
UKMET show a much slower, and more erratic motion in a couple of
days.  The updated NHC track has trended faster than the previous
advisory and is close to the multi-model consensus, however, the new
forecast is slower than the GFS and ECMWF models.

Moisture from Vance and its remnants are likely to spread
northeastward across Mexico and into the south-central United
States during the next several days.  This is likely to produce
heavy rains over portions of these areas through Thursday
or Friday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/1500Z 15.3N 110.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  04/0000Z 16.7N 110.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  04/1200Z 18.6N 110.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  05/0000Z 20.6N 108.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  05/1200Z 22.5N 107.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  06/1200Z 24.0N 107.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  07/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

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