Tropical Storm VANCE

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TROPICAL STORM VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014
800 AM PDT SAT NOV 01 2014

The structure of Vance continues to improve, albeit slowly.  The
first-light visible images show that the center is in the northern
portion of the central dense overcast, with recent microwave data
suggesting the development of a more solid inner core.  A blend of
the latest subjective and objective Dvorak estimates support raising
the initial wind speed to 40 kt.  Vance has ample opportunity to
strengthen for about the next 2 days while it remains over very warm
waters with low shear conditions.  Little change is made to the
forecast intensity during that time, which is just a bit higher than
the model consensus.  Thereafter, shear is forecast to increase
markedly, with rather hostile conditions expected while the cyclone
approaches Mexico.  Guidance has trended sharply downward at days
3-5, and the latest NHC forecast is adjusted in that direction.

Vance is moving about 280/6 kt.  The cyclone is expected to move
much faster toward the west-northwest later today, and then move
northwestward toward a deepening mid-level trough west of 110W by
day 2. Similar to the last advisory, the track guidance remains
tightly clustered but has shifted westward during the first 2 days.
Thus, the updated NHC track forecast is a little left of the
previous one through 48 hours. After that time, the mid-level trough
is expected to steer Vance to the north and north-northeast on days
3 and 4. Guidance is coming into better agreement on this solution,
with the 06z GFS having trended left of its 00z solution, and no
changes were made to the official NHC forecast.  While the latest
NHC prediction still shows Vance moving onshore of the coast of
Mexico around day 5, it is a distinct possibility that the
low-level center will remain offshore due to the cyclone decoupling
from the mid-level flow.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/1500Z  9.6N 103.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  02/0000Z 10.2N 104.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  02/1200Z 11.1N 107.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  03/0000Z 12.5N 109.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  03/1200Z 14.3N 110.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  04/1200Z 18.1N 109.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  05/1200Z 22.5N 107.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  06/1200Z 23.5N 106.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Blake

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