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Tropical Storm TRUDY (Text)

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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TRUDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   2A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202014
1100 PM PDT FRI OCT 17 2014

...SLOW-MOVING TRUDY TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS OVER SOUTHERN
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
...HIGH RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 98.9W
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM ESE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TECPAN DE GALEANA TO LAGUNA DE CHACAHUA MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TRUDY WAS
ESTIMATED BY RADAR DATA FROM ACAPULCO TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 16.2
NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.9 WEST. TRUDY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR
5 MPH...7 KM/H. A SLOW NORTHWARD TRACK IS LIKELY...WITH TRUDY
EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN MEXICO ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL...WITH
WEAKENING EXPECTED AFTER THAT TIME.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN PORTIONS OF THE
WARNING AREA...AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PROGRESS
NORTHWESTWARD THOROUGH THE WARNING AREA OVERNIGHT AND ON SATURDAY.

RAINFALL...TRUDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 20 INCHES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN THE
STATES OF GUERRERO AND OAXACA IN SOUTHERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS ARE
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

SURF...SWELLS AND DANGEROUS WAVES FROM TRUDY WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...LIKELY
CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

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