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Hurricane SIMON


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BULLETIN
HURRICANE SIMON ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192014
200 PM PDT SUN OCT 05 2014

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS SIMON WEAKENING RAPIDLY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.4N 117.5W
ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM SSW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SIMON WAS LOCATED
BY NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 117.5 WEST.  SIMON IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
NEAR 9 MPH.  A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SIMON IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM
SOON...AND IT WILL LIKELY BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY TUESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 977 MB...28.85 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...SIMON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 8 INCHES OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AND THE STATE OF SONORA IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO.  STARTING
ON TUESDAY...RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF THE
U.S. DESERT SOUTHWEST.  THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY SIMON ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.  SWELLS FROM SIMON ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.  THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.  PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

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