Tropical Storm SIMON

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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SIMON ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192014
200 AM PDT FRI OCT 03 2014

...SIMON EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY SATURDAY MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...18.3N 108.9W
ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM ESE OF SOCORRO ISLAND
ABOUT 325 MI...520 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SIMON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.9 WEST. SIMON IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...THIS GENERAL MOTION
WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY. A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED ON SATURDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SIMON SHOULD PASS OVER OR
NEAR SOCORRO ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND SIMON IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY SATURDAY MORNING.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...SIMON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 8 INCHES THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT ACROSS COLIMA...WESTERN JALISCO...NAYARIT...SOUTHERN
SINALOA...AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR IN WESTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY SIMON ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO.  THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.  PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
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NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

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