Hurricane RACHEL

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HURRICANE RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182014
800 PM PDT SAT SEP 27 2014

Satellite imagery shows that the eye of Rachel has become somewhat
better defined during the past several hours, and that the cloud
tops in the eyewall have cooled.  Satellite intensity estimates
are now 77 kt from TAFB and SAB, and an objective estimate from the
CIMSS ADT is 75 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity is
increased to 75 kt.

The initial motion is now 340/6.  Rachel is moving into a weakness
in the subtropical ridge caused by a large deep-layer trough over
the western United States.  The large-scale models forecast the
trough to move eastward after 12-24 hours, leaving Rachel stuck in
an area of weak steering currents for a day or two.  Beyond that
time, Rachel or its remnants should be steered southwestward by a
low-level ridge over the northeastern Pacific.  There is little
change in the guidance since the last advisory, and the new
forecast track is almost identical to the previous forecast.

Some additional strengthening is possible tonight.  After that, a
combination of increasing shear and the entrainment of a dry and
stable airmass should cause a quick weakening.  The new intensity
forecast follows the previous forecast in calling for Rachel to
degenerate to a remnant low in about three days time.  The new
forecast is a little stronger than the previous forecast from 12-48
hours based on the initial intensity, and it is in best agreement
with the SHIPS model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/0300Z 20.7N 116.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  28/1200Z 21.4N 116.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  29/0000Z 22.1N 117.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  29/1200Z 22.2N 117.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  30/0000Z 22.0N 117.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  01/0000Z 21.0N 118.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  02/0000Z 20.5N 118.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  03/0000Z 19.5N 119.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven

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