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Tropical Storm POLO (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM POLO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  17A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
500 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

...POLO FORECAST TO WEAKEN...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 108.8W
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.



DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.8 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H.  A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST LATER TODAY.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF POLO WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON LATER TODAY OR EARLY SUNDAY.  HOWEVER...ANY
DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER
WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS POLO
REMAINS IN AN AREA OF UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...AND THE
CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...
PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TODAY.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS.  PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES OVER EXTREME
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THESE RAINS COULD
RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

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