Hurricane POLO

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HURRICANE POLO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   9A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
500 AM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

...POLO MOVING PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 105.3W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 510 MI...820 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF PLAYA PERULA TO CABO CORRIENTES

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE POLO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.3 WEST. POLO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H.  A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...WITH A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...POLO WILL MOVE
PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO.  HOWEVER...ANY
DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO
THE COAST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
AFTER THAT...POLO IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DUE TO UNFAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE POLO LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80
MILES...130 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER PORTIONS
OF THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.  TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA TODAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY
TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
5 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 15 INCHES NEAR THE COAST OF
GUERRERO...MICHOACAN...COLIMA AND JALISCO STATES IN MEXICO.  THESE
RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
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NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

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