Tropical Storm POLO

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TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
0300 UTC FRI SEP 19 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF PLAYA PERULA TO CABO CORRIENTES
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 106.6W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT   8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  981 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  30SW  20NW.
34 KT.......100NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 106.6W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 106.2W

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 19.0N 107.1W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  20NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 19.8N 108.1W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 20.6N 109.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 21.3N 110.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.2N 113.1W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 22.5N 115.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 22.5N 117.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 106.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


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