ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172014 200 AM PDT MON SEP 22 2014 Polo has been devoid of significant deep convection for about 10 hours now. Satellite images show that the cyclone consists of a tight swirl of low-level clouds with a few deeper clouds located over 100 n mi west of the center near the mid-level remnants. The initial wind speed is lowered to 30 kt, following the latest Dvorak classifications, making Polo a tropical depression. Continued weakening is expected while the cyclone remains in an environment of strong shear, dry air, and over relatively cool waters. If deep convection does not return soon, Polo will likely be declared a remnant low later today. The remnant low is forecast to dissipate in 3 to 4 days. The depression has moved west-southwestward during the past few hours, but a longer term motion is 270/7. A slower westward motion is expected today, followed by a turn to the southwest on Tuesday while the shallow system is steered by a low-level ridge to its northwest. The NHC track forecast is south of the previous one, mainly to account for the initial position, and is near the multi-model consensus TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 22.5N 113.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 22.4N 114.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 23/0600Z 22.2N 115.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 23/1800Z 21.8N 116.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 24/0600Z 21.2N 117.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/0600Z 20.0N 118.3W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Wednesday, 31-Dec-2014 12:09:56 UTC