Tropical Depression POLO
ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172014
200 AM PDT MON SEP 22 2014
Polo has been devoid of significant deep convection for about 10
hours now. Satellite images show that the cyclone consists of a
tight swirl of low-level clouds with a few deeper clouds located
over 100 n mi west of the center near the mid-level remnants.
The initial wind speed is lowered to 30 kt, following the latest
Dvorak classifications, making Polo a tropical depression.
Continued weakening is expected while the cyclone remains in an
environment of strong shear, dry air, and over relatively cool
waters. If deep convection does not return soon, Polo will likely
be declared a remnant low later today. The remnant low is forecast
to dissipate in 3 to 4 days.
The depression has moved west-southwestward during the past few
hours, but a longer term motion is 270/7. A slower westward motion
is expected today, followed by a turn to the southwest on Tuesday
while the shallow system is steered by a low-level ridge to its
northwest. The NHC track forecast is south of the previous one,
mainly to account for the initial position, and is near the
multi-model consensus TVCE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/0900Z 22.5N 113.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 22.4N 114.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 23/0600Z 22.2N 115.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 23/1800Z 21.8N 116.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 24/0600Z 21.2N 117.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 25/0600Z 20.0N 118.3W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW