ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172014 800 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014 Polo continues to be buffeted by 25 to 30 kt of easterly shear, and the cloud pattern features only small patches of disorganized deep convection west of the center location. Dvorak estimates are slowly decreasing, and the initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt based on the latest estimate from TAFB. Given the continued shear and a track over cooler waters, Polo is forecast to gradually weaken to a depression and then to a remnant low by 36 hours, but this could occur sooner. The initial motion estimate is 300/06. Polo moved a little to the right of the previous forecast track over the past few hours, but the overall track forecast reasoning remains unchanged. The weakening cyclone will continue west-northwestward and then turn westward as a mid-level ridge builds to the north during the next couple of days. Afterward, the weak remnant low should turn southwestward under the influence of a low-level ridge to the west. The guidance has shifted to the right this cycle, showing a broader westward and then southwestward turn through dissipation. Based on this shift, and the initial position and motion, the NHC track has been shifted about 30 miles to the right of the previous official forecast toward the latest TVCE multi-model consensus through 48 hours, and is largely an update of the previous forecast after that time. Based on the forecast track and wind radii, tropical storm force winds are expected to remain south of the Baja California peninsula. Since any unexpected deviation to the north of the forecast track could still bring tropical storm force winds to the coast, the Government of Mexico is keeping the tropical storm watch until Polo begins to move away from Baja California Sur. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 21.6N 109.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 22.1N 110.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 22/0000Z 22.5N 112.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 22/1200Z 22.6N 113.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 23/0000Z 22.3N 114.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 24/0000Z 21.5N 115.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 25/0000Z 20.0N 115.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan NNNN
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 31-Dec-2014 12:09:56 UTC