ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172014 800 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014 Although the convection has increased a little in the past couple of hours, Polo is still a sheared cyclone. The cloud pattern consists of a tight swirl of low clouds located on the northeastern edge of an area of intermittent deep convection. Based on the trend of satellite estimates, the initial intensity has been lowered to 40 kt, and these winds are probably occurring in the convection in the southwest quadrant. The shear is forecast to increase even further, and the cyclone is heading toward cooler waters. The combination of these two factors should result in additional weakening, and Polo is expected to become a tropical depression in about 24 hours. In fact, the SHIPS and LGEM models dissipate the cyclone by 36 hours. Polo has been moving between the northwest and west-northwest since yesterday at about 5 to 7 kt. The cyclone is trapped south of an amplifying mid-level ridge over Mexico, and this pattern should force Polo to move on a west-northwest to west track until dissipation in a few days. The NHC forecast has not changed, and continues to be very close to the multi-model consensus. Based on the forecast track and wind radii, tropical storm force winds are anticipated to remain south of the Baja California peninsula. Since any unexpected deviation to the north of the forecast track could bring tropical storm force winds to the coast, the government of Mexico has wisely opted to maintain the tropical storm watch until Polo moves away from Baja California. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 20.9N 109.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 21.3N 109.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 21.9N 111.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 22/0000Z 22.3N 112.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 22/1200Z 22.5N 113.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 23/1200Z 22.0N 115.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 24/1200Z 21.5N 115.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 25/1200Z 20.5N 116.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Avila NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Wednesday, 31-Dec-2014 12:09:56 UTC