ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172014 800 AM PDT THU SEP 18 2014 The cloud pattern associated with Polo has not become any better organized during the past several hours. There is a small central dense overcast surrounded by a cyclonically curved convective band. The initial intensity is kept at 65 kt based on Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. Polo has the opportunity to strengthen before the northeasterly shear increases in 24 hours as indicated in the NHC forecast. After that time, most of the guidance shows gradual weakening, and in fact, the peak wind indicated by the intensity consensus and the SHIPS models is lower than in previous runs. Cooler waters from the upwelling caused by Odile will likely aid the weakening process. The best estimate of the initial motion is 310/7. A strong ridge of high pressure over Mexico is driving Polo west-northwestward and northwestward. Most of the global models amplify the ridge, and this pattern will continue to steer Polo on the same general track for the next 3 to 4 days. On the forecast track, the cyclone will pass well south of the southwestern coast of Mexico and well south of the southern Baja California peninsula. The confidence in the track forecast is relatively high since both the multi-model consensus TVCN and the average of the GFS and the ECMWF models, GFEX, are predicting a track well removed from land. By the end of the forecast period, a weaker Polo will probably meander embedded within the low-level flow, well away from land. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 17.3N 105.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 18.0N 106.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 18.7N 107.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 19.5N 108.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 20/1200Z 20.4N 109.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 21/1200Z 21.5N 112.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 22/1200Z 22.5N 114.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 23/1200Z 22.5N 116.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila NNNN
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 31-Dec-2014 12:09:55 UTC