ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172014 800 AM PDT WED SEP 17 2014 The cloud pattern has continued to become better organized, and the center is now more embedded within the area of deep convection as indicated by satellite. The initial intensity has been increased to 50 kt based on estimates from TAFB and SAB. There is still some shear over the cyclone, but not strong enough to halt intensification, and Polo is forecast to become a hurricane in 24 hours or so. After an expected peak intensity in about 36 hours, strong upper-level northeasterly winds should become established over Polo, resulting is gradual weakening. This is the solution provided by most of the guidance, and the NHC forecast follows closely the intensity consensus ICON. Polo is moving toward the northwest or 315 degrees at 9 knots, steered by the flow around a mid-level ridge over northeastern Mexico. Beyond 48 hours, most of the global models build the ridge westward forcing Polo to move on a west-northwesterly track. The bulk of the guidance keeps the core of Polo well south of the southern tip of Baja California peninsula, and so does the NHC forecast. This forecast is not very different from the previous one, and is placed between the multi-model consensus TVCN, and lies between the average of the GFS and the ECMWF models. A small deviation to the north of the track could bring stronger winds to portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Consequently, the government of Mexico has issued a tropical storm warning for a portion of the coast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 15.7N 102.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 16.6N 103.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 18/1200Z 17.5N 105.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 19/0000Z 18.1N 106.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 19/1200Z 18.8N 107.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 20/1200Z 20.0N 109.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 21/1200Z 21.0N 112.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 22/1200Z 22.0N 114.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila NNNN
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 31-Dec-2014 12:09:55 UTC