Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162014
800 PM PDT SAT SEP 13 2014

Satellite imagery suggests that the depression is actually somewhat
better organized than it was 24 hours ago. Last-light visible images
showed a well-defined circulation within an elongated broader-scale
cyclonic envelope, obscured by a thick veil of cirrus clouds. A band
consisting of intermittent, cold-topped convection also was noted
on the south side of circulation.  Since there have been no
fundamental changes to the cloud pattern since the last advisory,
the initial intensity estimate is held at 30 kt.

Opposing lower- and upper-level flow is creating a hostile
environment of easterly shear over the depression, with global
models showing the shear increasing while the depression nears
Hurricane Odile.  The model guidance shows that the shear will
become so extreme that the depression will degenerate into an open
trough in about 24 hours, and the NHC forecast follows suit.

The depression is moving faster toward the east-southeast or
120/08.  The small cyclone is expected to accelerate eastward and
east-northeastward during the next 24 hours while it is drawn into
the circulation of Hurricane Odile.  The system should turn
northeastward after that time before losing its identity altogether.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/0300Z 15.1N 116.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  14/1200Z 15.2N 114.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  15/0000Z 16.2N 112.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  15/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

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