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Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E (Text)

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162014
800 AM PDT SAT SEP 13 2014

A strong burst of deep convection with cloud tops colder than -80C
have developed during the past few hours near and to the southwest
of the center of TD-16E. In addition, recent passive microwave
satellite images indicate that the low-level circulation remains
well defined despite the moderate northeasterly shear that has been
affecting the small cyclone. The initial intensity of 30 kt is
based on consensus T2.0/30 kt classifications from TAFB and SAB.
UW-CIMSS ADT estimates are T2.5/35 kt, but the intensity is being
held below this value due to the pulsing nature of the deep
convection. The initial position was adjusted slightly southward of
the previous track based on a 1040 UTC SSMI microwave overpass.

The initial motion estimate is toward the east-southeast or 110/06
kt. The depression is forecast to gradually turn more eastward as
it comes under the influence of increasing westerly flow on the
south side of Hurricane Odile, which is located more than 700 nmi to
its east. The only change to the previous forecast track was to add
remnant low positions at 36 and 48 hours given that most of the
global models are now maintaining a discrete circulation a little
bit longer. By 72 hours, however, the small cyclone is expected to
be absorbed into the outer circulation of Odile.

The vertical wind shear is expected to remain moderate from the
northeast and east at 15-20 kt for the next 24 hours or so, followed
by even stronger shear induced by the outflow from Odile as the two
cyclones move closer to each other. As a result, the depression is
forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by 24-36 hours. The
official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and
closely follows the ICON consensus model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/1500Z 16.0N 117.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  14/0000Z 15.7N 116.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  14/1200Z 15.5N 114.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  15/0000Z 16.0N 112.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  15/1200Z 18.4N 110.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  16/1200Z...ABSORBED BY HURRICANE ODILE

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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