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Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E (Text)

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TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162014
200 AM PDT SAT SEP 13 2014

Tropical Depression Sixteen-E remains poorly organized.  Shortwave
IR and microwave imagery from a 0315 UTC SSMI-S pass indicate that
the low-level center remains exposed to the east of a small area of
deep convection.  The estimated initial motion is 110/06, however
this is somewhat uncertain due to the the poor organization of the
depression and the lack of visible imagery.  Regardless, the track
forecast reasoning is generally unchanged and a steady east-
southeastward motion toward the larger Hurricane Odile is expected
until the depression dissipates in 24 to 36 hours.

The intensity has been held at 30 kt based on the most recent Dvorak
classification from TAFB.  Due to its close proximity to the much
stronger circulation of Odile, the depression is embedded within an
unfavorable environment consisting of increasing vertical wind shear
and descending, dry air.  The environment should become more
unfavorable as the two tropical cyclones draw nearer, ultimately
causing Sixteen-E to become a remnant low before being stretched out
into a trough by the low-level flow of Odile.  Although the models
all forecast the circulation of Sixteen-E to dissipate within 36
hours, some of the intensity guidance appears to forecast
strengthening for the next several days.  This is because the vortex
tracker follows a remnant feature that wraps around Odile, long
after the dissipation of the depression's surface circulation.
Consequently, the official forecast has not been changed
significantly and is below most of the guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/0900Z 16.5N 117.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  13/1800Z 16.2N 116.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  14/0600Z 15.8N 115.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  14/1800Z...DISSIPATED

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Forecaster Zelinsky/Brennan

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