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Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E (Text)

ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162014
200 PM PDT FRI SEP 12 2014

The depression is not well organized with limited deep convection
and little, if any, convective banding to be seen.  Earlier SSMI,
SSMIS, and a more recent ASCAT overpass showed that the low-level
center was displaced to the east-northeast of a small cluster of
showers.  The current intensity is kept at 30 kt based on the
scatterometer data. The ASCAT overpass, however, also showed that
the low-level circulation was becoming elongated from southwest to
northeast.  The unfavorable low-level influence of the much larger
circulation of Tropical Storm Odile, located about 800 n mi to the
east, is expected to become increasingly disruptive to the
depression.  The system is now forecast to degenerate into a remnant
low sooner than shown in earlier advisories.

Based on the microwave observations and visible satellite imagery,
the cyclone has been moving slowly east-northeastward or 070/3.
The depression or post-tropical cyclone should soon become
entrained into the circulation of Odile and turn eastward to
east-southeastward over the next day or so.  The official track
forecast is between the latest ECMWF and GFS solutions.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/2100Z 16.9N 119.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  13/0600Z 16.7N 118.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  13/1800Z 16.4N 117.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  14/0600Z 15.9N 115.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  14/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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