Tropical Storm ODILE

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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ODILE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  26A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014
1100 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

...HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...AND THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.8N 113.5W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SE OF BAHIA DE LOS ANGELES MEXICO
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM S OF PUERTO LIBERTAD MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO TO
SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS
* THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM LORETO TO SAN FELIPE
* MAINLAND MEXICO FROM HUATABAMPITO TO PUERTO PENASCO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA NORTH OF SAN JOSE DE LAS
PALOMAS TO CABO SAN QUINTIN

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ODILE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE WAS
LOCATED INLAND NEAR LATITUDE 28.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.5 WEST.
ODILE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN
ADDITIONAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ODILE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER OR
NEAR THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH
TODAY...AND MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND
INTO NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS...AND ODILE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER PORTIONS
OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA BY
THIS AFTERNOON.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WIND SPEEDS ATOP AND ON THE WINDWARD SIDES
OF HILLS AND MOUNTAINS ARE OFTEN UP TO 30 PERCENT STRONGER THAN
INDICATED IN THIS ADVISORY...AND IN SOME ELEVATED LOCATIONS CAN BE
EVEN GREATER.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE COULD STILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL
FLOODING IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS...AND ALSO ALONG THE COAST OF
THE FAR NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA FROM NEAR SAN FELIPE AROUND TO
NEAR PUERTO PENASCO. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY LARGE AND DAMAGING WAVES.

RAINFALL...ODILE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12
INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF AROUND 18 INCHES ACROSS MUCH
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH
FRIDAY. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. A 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL OF 4.42 INCHES...112
MM...HAS BEEN REPORTED AT CONSTITUCION MEXICO ON THE CENTRAL BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

ABUNDANT MOISTURE AHEAD OF ODILE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS AROUND 9
INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA...SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO...AND
FAR WESTERN TEXAS INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO
RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY
IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.

SURF...SWELLS FROM ODILE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND ARE AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA.  THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF
AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

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