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Hurricane ODILE (Text)


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HURRICANE ODILE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  16A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014
1100 PM PDT SAT SEP 13 2014

...ODILE BECOMES A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE AS IT MOVES
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 106.9W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.11 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM CABO SAN LAZARO TO LA PAZ

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF CABO SAN
LAZARO TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO
* THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ TO
LORETO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES
* THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ TO
LORETO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF PUERTO SAN
ANDRESITO TO PUNTA ABREOJOS
* THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF LORETO TO
MULEGE

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ODILE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE ODILE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.9 WEST. ODILE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H.  A GENERAL
MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.  ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CORE OF ODILE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...AND THEN PASS NEAR OR
OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 120 MPH...
195 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ODILE IS A CATEGORY THREE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  ODILE IS RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING
AND ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE THE HURRICANE
NEARS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR.

ODILE IS A LARGE HURRICANE.  HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 952 MB...28.11 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA BEGINNING AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT...AND ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
HURRICANE WATCH AREA LATE MONDAY.  TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR IN ADVANCE
OF THE HURRICANE CONDITIONS BEGINNING SUNDAY.  TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA BY
MONDAY NIGHT.  TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING ALONG
THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO IN THE WARNING AREA.

SURF...SWELLS FROM ODILE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...ODILE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF AROUND 15 INCHES IN AREAS OF
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN ACROSS THE MEXICAN STATES OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR...COLIMA...JALISCO...AND WESTERN MICHOACAN.  THESE RAINS ARE
LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

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Page last modified: Wednesday, 31-Dec-2014 12:09:50 UTC