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Tropical Storm ODILE (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM ODILE ADVISORY NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014
800 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINFALL A SERIOUS THREAT ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...AND THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.4N 113.2W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SE OF BAHIA DE LOS ANGELES MEXICO
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM WSW OF BAHIA KINO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO NORTHWARD TO PUERTO PENASCO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO TO
SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS
* THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM LORETO TO SAN FELIPE
* MAINLAND MEXICO FROM HUATABAMPITO TO PUERTO PENASCO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA NORTH OF SAN JOSE DE LAS
PALOMAS TO CABO SAN QUINTIN

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ODILE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE WAS
LOCATED INLAND NEAR LATITUDE 28.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.2 WEST.
ODILE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15
KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS MORNING.  A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND
NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN ADDITIONAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF ODILE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER OR NEAR THE EAST COAST OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH TODAY...AND MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND INTO NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO ON
WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND ODILE
IS LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.36 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER PORTIONS
OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA BY
THIS AFTERNOON.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WIND SPEEDS ATOP AND ON THE WINDWARD SIDES
OF HILLS AND MOUNTAINS ARE OFTEN UP TO 30 PERCENT STRONGER THAN
INDICATED IN THIS ADVISORY...AND IN SOME ELEVATED LOCATIONS CAN BE
EVEN GREATER.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE COULD STILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL
FLOODING IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS...AND ALSO ALONG THE COAST OF
THE FAR NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA FROM NEAR SAN FELIPE AROUND TO
NEAR PUERTO PENASCO. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY LARGE AND DAMAGING WAVES.

RAINFALL...ODILE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12
INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF AROUND 18 INCHES ACROSS MUCH
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH
FRIDAY. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

ABUNDANT MOISTURE AHEAD OF ODILE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS AROUND 9
INCHES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA...SOUTHWESTERN
NEW MEXICO...AND FAR WESTERN TEXAS INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THESE RAINS
COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

SURF...SWELLS FROM ODILE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND ARE AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA.  THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF
AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

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