Hurricane ODILE

ZCZC MIATCPEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ODILE ADVISORY NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014
800 AM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

...ODILE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF
THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING REMAIN A SERIOUS THREAT...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.7N 111.3W
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM E OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF LORETO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS TO SANTA ROSALIA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS
TO PUNTA EUGENIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF SANTA
ROSALIA TO BAHIA DE LOS ANGELES
* THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUNTA
EUGENIA TO SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS
* MAINLAND MEXICO FROM ALTATA TO BAHIA KINO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA NORTH OF SAN JOSE DE LAS
PALOMAS TO CABO SAN QUINTIN
* THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF BAHIA DE LOS
ANGELES TO SAN FELIPE
* MAINLAND MEXICO FROM NORTH OF BAHIA KINO TO PUERTO LIBERTAD

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ODILE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ODILE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.3 WEST. ODILE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...AND A NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH DECREASING FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
ODILE WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...155 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB...28.20 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER
BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT.  TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN ADVANCE OF THE
HURRICANE CONDITIONS...AND OVER THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA IN
MAINLAND MEXICO THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WIND SPEEDS ATOP AND ON THE WINDWARD SIDES
OF HILLS AND MOUNTAINS ARE OFTEN UP TO 30 PERCENT STRONGER THAN
INDICATED IN THIS ADVISORY...AND IN SOME ELEVATED LOCATIONS CAN BE
EVEN GREATER.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA.  NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

RAINFALL...ODILE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12
INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF AROUND 18 INCHES ACROSS MUCH
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH FRIDAY.  THESE RAINS ARE
LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG COASTAL
PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF SINALOA AND SONORA.

SURF...SWELLS FROM ODILE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND ARE AFFECTING
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

NNNN