Tropical Storm ODILE
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TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014
800 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014
Satellite images show that Odile is maintaining its organization for
now, although most of the deepest convection is confined to the
northeastern quadrant of the circulation. Since the center of
circulation appears to be over the waters of the Gulf of California,
it is assumed that the winds have not decreased and the intensity
estimate remains 45 kt. No significant change in strength is
anticipated until the center crosses the coast of northwestern
mainland Mexico on Wednesday. After that occurs, weakening should
be rapid and the system will likely degenerate into a weak remnant
low in 24-36 hours, and lose its identity by 48 hours. The official
wind speed forecast is similar to the previous one.
Based on geostationary and microwave imagery, the motion continues
to be northward or about 360/6 kt. A mid-level ridge extending from
southern Texas westward over Mexico should cause a gradual turn
toward the north-northeast over the next day or so. The official
track forecast is very similar to that from the previous advisory,
and is also very close to the latest dynamical model consensus,
TVCE.
Moisture is being advected northward by Odile's circulation, and the
moisture associated with Odile or its remnant low will likely be
crossing the United States/Mexico border within 24 hours. This,
along with the slow motion of the system, will likely result in
locally heavy rains and possible flooding over portions of the
southwestern United States. Please see information from your local
weather office for more details.
In addition, a significant storm surge is possible along the
northern Gulf of California from Puerto Penasco westward to San
Felipe, Mexico, due to a long fetch of southeasterly winds forcing
trapped water into the concave coastal regions of the northern Gulf
of California.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 17/0300Z 29.7N 113.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 17/1200Z 30.4N 113.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 18/0000Z 31.5N 112.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 18/1200Z 32.8N 111.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
48H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Pasch
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