Hurricane ODILE

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HURRICANE ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014
800 AM PDT SAT SEP 13 2014

The first-light visible satellite images show that Odile has
continued to become better organized.  The central dense overcast
has become much more symmetric with some hints of an eye, which is
consistent with a TRMM microwave pass from around 1200 UTC.  A blend
of the satellite intensity estimates gives 70 kt as the initial wind
speed.  Further strengthening seems likely over the next day or so
given the very warm waters and low shear.  Steady or even rapid
intensification appears to be most probable during that time, and
the NHC forecast continues the trend of the last forecast to be
above almost all of the guidance.  Odile could start to weaken on
Monday since it is forecast to pass near the cold wake of Norbert,
with generally cooler waters expected after that time. The NHC
forecast is blended with the previous NHC prediction and the
intensity consensus.

The TRMM pass gives a more confident initial motion estimate of
310/5.  Odile should accelerate northwestward by late today as a
mid-level ridge amplifies to the northeast of the cyclone. However,
significant spread remains in the model guidance near and after 24
hours, with a fair number of models close to Baja California Sur.
The subtropical ridge strength over the eastern Pacific, along with
any potential interaction with Tropical Depression 16-E, is making
this forecast rather complicated.  With little change to the
guidance this cycle, the new NHC forecast track will remain close to
the previous one.   Given the spread in the guidance, confidence
remains below normal in the details of the track forecast, including
the potential threat to Baja California.  Depending on the 1200 UTC
model cycle, additional watches and/or warnings could be needed for
portions of the Baja California peninsula later today.

Moisture from a disturbance over northeastern Mexico and the Pacific
ITCZ is forecast to be advected by Odile's circulation northwestward
across Mexico into the southwestern United States for early next
week.   This could result in heavy rains and life-threatening
flash flooding in those areas.  Please see information from your
local weather office for more details.  This is a similar pattern
which occurred early this week with Norbert and the remnants of
Dolly.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/1500Z 16.6N 106.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  14/0000Z 17.3N 106.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  14/1200Z 18.9N 108.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  15/0000Z 20.6N 110.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  15/1200Z 22.1N 111.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  16/1200Z 24.4N 114.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  17/1200Z 26.5N 116.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  18/1200Z 27.5N 117.2W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

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