Tropical Storm ODILE

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TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014
800 PM PDT FRI SEP 12 2014

While the center of Odile is still outside of the main convective
area, the cyclone has recently developed a strong curved convective
band over the eastern semicircle.  This suggests that the vertical
wind shear is decreasing.  The various subjective and objective
satellite intensity estimates range from 45 to 65 kt, and there has
been little change in these estimates since the last advisory.
Based on this, the initial intensity remains 55 kt.  The cirrus
outflow is improving and is now good to excellent in all directions
except the north.

Odile has started a slow northwestward motion of 315/3 during the
past several hours.  A mid-level ridge is forecast to build over
northern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula soon, which is
expected to cause Odile to accelerate northwestward for the next
several days.  The guidance shows a little more spread than before,
and it is also showing a somewhat faster forward speed after 72
hours. The new forecast track is adjusted to the right based on the
current position and motion, and is a little faster than the
previous forecast after 72 hours.  The new track forecast is in the
center of the track guidance envelope.

The large-scale models suggest that Odile should be in a light
shear environment for the next 48 hours while the cyclone passes
over sea surface temperatures near 29 deg C.  This should allow
steady strengthening.  Despite this, most of the intensity guidance
shows less intensification than it did during the previous cycle.
The intensity forecast still calls for a peak of 90 kt in 48 hours,
but shows a slower development rate than before. After the peak,
Odile should weaken when it encounters cooler waters.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/0300Z 16.2N 105.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  13/1200Z 16.6N 105.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  14/0000Z 17.5N 107.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  14/1200Z 18.9N 108.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  15/0000Z 20.7N 110.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  16/0000Z 23.5N 113.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  17/0000Z 25.5N 116.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  18/0000Z 26.5N 117.5W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

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