Tropical Storm ODILE

ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014
800 AM PDT THU SEP 11 2014

Early morning GOES-E visible images and an 1148 UTC SSMIS microwave
overpass indicate that the 15-20 kt of northeasterly shear continues
to displace the surface circulation to the northeast of the
convective canopy.  Subjective and objective satellite intensity
estimates are unchanged, and so is the initial intensity of 45 kt.
Statistical and dynamical guidance agrees with the shear persisting
during the next 24 hours or so.  After that time, the upper wind
pattern becomes conducive for intensification through the remainder
of the forecast period.  The intensity forecast is basically an
update from the previous forecast, but now reflects strengthening to
a major hurricane at the 96 hour period, which is supported by the
SHIPS intensity forecast.

The initial motion estimate is 265/02, which is confirmed by the
fortuitous microwave image.  This westward drift is should
continue during the next 24 hours, although the motion could be
somewhat erratic, possibly a slight jog to the southwest as
indicated by a number of the deterministic models.  Afterwards, the
cyclone should begin a northwestward motion in response to a
mid-level ridge building over northern Mexico and the Baja
California peninsula.  Odile will maintain a northwestward track and
accelerate through day 5 which agrees with the TVCE multi-model
consensus and the ECMWF/GFS (GFEX) blend.  The official forecast is
close to the previous advisory and sides with the aforementioned
TVCE and GFEX consensus models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/1500Z 15.3N 104.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  12/0000Z 15.4N 104.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  12/1200Z 15.4N 104.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  13/0000Z 15.7N 105.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  13/1200Z 16.4N 105.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  14/1200Z 19.0N 108.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  15/1200Z 22.0N 112.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
120H  16/1200Z 24.5N 115.5W   85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts

NNNN