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Tropical Storm ODILE (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014
200 AM PDT THU SEP 11 2014

Odile has a classic shear pattern in infrared imagery, with the
center located along a very sharp gradient in cloud top temperatures
on the northeast side of the main convective cloud mass. Dvorak
estimates from TAFB and SAB were both T3.0/45 kt, and that is the
initial intensity for this advisory. The SHIPS model and UW-CIMSS
satellite analysis show moderate northeasterly shear affecting the
cyclone, and this should continue for the next 24 to 36 hours. This
shear will likely keep Odile from intensifying too quickly despite
otherwise favorable conditions. After that time, the shear should
lessen and steadier intensification is expected. The SHIPS model
continues to have the most aggressive forecast, and shows Odile
reaching major hurricane intensity in about 72 hours. The official
forecast is similar to the previous one and is roughly between the
SHIPS model and the IVCN consensus aid.

The initial motion estimate is 270/02, as Odile appears to have been
drifting westward over the past few hours. Steering currents will
remain weak for the next 24 to 36 hours, and during this time much
of the GFS-based guidance now shows Odile making a small cyclonic
loop with some southward component of motion. The ECMWF shows little
motion during the first 24 hours, and a northwestward motion
starting by 36 hours. The NHC forecast during the first 36 hours is
a blend of these solutions and shows a slow westward drift, although
some erratic motion is possible during this time. After 36 hours,
Odile will come under the influence of a building subtropical ridge
to its northeast, which should result in an acceleration toward the
northwest through the remainder of the forecast period. The guidance
remains in good agreement on this scenario with the exception of the
GFDL, which continues to be a right outlier. The new NHC track
forecast is a little to the left of the previous one, in part due to
the initial position and motion. The NHC forecast is close to the
ECMWF solution after 48 hours and is a little to the left of the
TVCE multi-model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/0900Z 15.5N 104.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  11/1800Z 15.5N 104.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  12/0600Z 15.5N 104.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  12/1800Z 15.5N 104.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  13/0600Z 16.1N 105.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  14/0600Z 18.5N 108.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  15/0600Z 21.5N 111.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
120H  16/0600Z 24.5N 115.0W   85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan

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