Hurricane NORBERT

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HURRICANE NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142014
0300 UTC FRI SEP 05 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO CABO SAN LAZARO.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ NORTHWARD TO
SAN EVARISTO...AND HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO TO
PUNTA ABREOJOS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO
PUNTA EUGENIA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SANTA FE TO CABO SAN LAZARO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN EVARISTO TO SOUTH OF SANTA FE
* NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO TO PUNTA ABREOJOS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO PUNTA EUGENIA
* NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO TO LORETO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 111.1W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  20SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 60NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE  90SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 240SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 111.1W AT 05/0300Z
AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 111.0W

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 22.9N 111.8W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  90SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 23.9N 112.8W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  90SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 24.8N 113.9W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  15SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  90SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 25.7N 115.2W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  70SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 27.1N 117.3W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 28.5N 118.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 29.0N 118.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.0N 111.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


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