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Hurricane NORBERT (Text)

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HURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142014
200 PM PDT SAT SEP 06 2014

The eye continues to be evident on visible images, but the
convection is not as deep as it was earlier. In fact, the strongest
convection is limited to the southern semicircle where the ocean is
still warm. Dvorak T-numbers have continued to decrease, and based
on blend of these estimates, the initial intensity has been lowered
to 90 kt. The northern portion of the circulation is already
reaching cooler waters and moving into a more stable environment.
This should result in steady or even rapid weakening during the next
24 hours, with a slower rate of weakening thereafter as the
circulation gradually spins down. Norbert is expected to become a
remnant low over the cold waters just west of the northern Baja
California peninsula in 3 days or so.

Norbert has been moving toward the northwest or 305 degrees at 7
knots. It is not necessary to make any significant adjustment to the
previous forecast track since the global models are not showing any
changes in the steering flow. As indicated earlier, Norbert is
forecast to move with the flow around the southwestern periphery of
a mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern United States. In
48 hours, the cyclone will reach the base of the mid-latitude
westerlies and begin to move northward and then northeastward. By
then, Norbert is forecast to be a shallow cyclone and will be moving
little in a weak low-level flow. The NHC forecast follows the trend
indicated by the multi-model consensus.

Moisture from the remnants of Dolly and the Pacific ITCZ is being
advected northward by the outer circulation of Norbert across
northern Mexico and into the southwestern United States. This could
result in heavy rains and life-threatening flash flooding in these
areas during the next few days. Please see information from your
local weather office for more details.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/2100Z 25.3N 114.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  07/0600Z 25.8N 115.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  07/1800Z 26.6N 116.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  08/0600Z 27.5N 117.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  08/1800Z 28.8N 117.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  09/1800Z 29.5N 117.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  10/1800Z 30.0N 116.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

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