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Hurricane NORBERT (Text)

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HURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142014
800 AM PDT FRI SEP 05 2014

The cloud pattern continues to be fairly well organized with a large
area of deep convection near the center and an eye feature noted in
microwave data. Objective and subjective Dvorak T-numbers have
changed little and still support an initial intensity of 80 kt.

Norbert is moving over an area of above normal sea surface
temperatures and within an environment of low shear, so there is no
reason for the cyclone to change much in intensity today. After that
time, the circulation will gradually begin to move over cooler
waters and into a more stable environment, resulting in a gradual
weakening. Norbert's slow motion over cold water parallel to the
Baja California Peninsula will tend to limit the cyclone's impact
north of the current warning area. The new NHC forecast is similar
to the previous one and follows the intensity consensus ICON.

Norbert has been wobbling during the past 12 to 24 hours, but the
average motion is toward the northwest or 320 degrees at 7 kt. The
cyclone is expected to continue on this general track around
the mid-level ridge over Mexico for the next 2 to 3 days.
Thereafter, the steering currents are forecast to weaken as a
trough in the westerlies swings by to the north of Norbert. The
cyclone should then slow down and begin to meander. There is high
confidence in the first 3 days of the forecast since guidance is
tightly clustered. After that time, there is less confidence due to
the large spread in model tracks, but the general trend is either
little motion or a slow turn toward the northeast. By then, Norbert
is expected to be a weak tropical storm or a remnant low.

Moisture from the remnants of Dolly and the Pacific ITCZ is being
advected northward by the outer circulation of Norbert across
northern Mexico and into the southwestern United States. This could
result in heavy rains and life-threatening flash flooding in these
areas during the next few days.  Please see information from your
local weather office for more details.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/1500Z 23.2N 112.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  06/0000Z 24.1N 113.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  06/1200Z 25.0N 114.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  07/0000Z 25.8N 115.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  07/1200Z 26.5N 116.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  08/1200Z 28.0N 118.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  09/1200Z 29.0N 118.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  10/1200Z 30.0N 118.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Avila

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