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Hurricane NORBERT (Text)

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HURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142014
800 PM PDT THU SEP 04 2014

The satellite presentation of the hurricane has not changed much
during the past several hours.  There has been no evidence of an eye
in either geostationary or recent microwave images, however the
central dense overcast remains fairly symmetric with cloud tops
colder than -80C.  Subjective and objective Dvorak estimates remain
unchanged and the initial wind speed is kept at 80 kt.  The
hurricane has likely peaked in intensity and some slight weakening
is predicted during the next 24 hours while the large circulation
interacts with land and begins to ingest some drier and more stable
air from the west. After that time, Norbert is forecast to move over
progressively cooler waters and into a less favorable thermodynamic
environment.  This should lead to a faster rate of weakening and
Norbert is predicted to become a remnant low in about 4 days.  The
NHC intensity forecast is close to the SHIPS/LGEM models during the
first day or so, and in good agreement with the intensity consensus
thereafter.

Recent satellite fixes indicate that Norbert is moving north-
northwestward or 330/7 kt.  The cyclone is expected to move
generally northwestward around the southwestern portion of a
mid-level ridge over northern Mexico during the next few days. The
model guidance has once again shifted eastward during the first 48
hours, which has required another eastward adjustment to the NHC
track.  Although none of the guidance models show the center of
Norbert crossing the coast of the Baja peninsula, the eastward shift
means that the core of the hurricane is likely to pass closer to
portions of the Pacific coast of Baja. Only a slight deviation to
the right of the track would bring hurricane-force winds to the
coast.  As a result, the government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane
Warning for a portion of the Pacific coast of the Baja peninsula. As
noted in the previous discussion, large spread remains in the track
guidance after 72 hours, and the NHC track lies near the multi-model
consensus at days 4 and 5.

Moisture from the remnants of Dolly and the Pacific ITCZ is being
advected northward by the outer circulation of Norbert across
northern Mexico and into the southwestern United States. This could
result in heavy rains and life-threatening flash flooding in these
areas during the next few days.  Please see information from your
local weather office for more details.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/0300Z 22.0N 111.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  05/1200Z 22.9N 111.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  06/0000Z 23.9N 112.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  06/1200Z 24.8N 113.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  07/0000Z 25.7N 115.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  08/0000Z 27.1N 117.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  09/0000Z 28.5N 118.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  10/0000Z 29.0N 118.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown

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