Tropical Storm LOWELL
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TROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122014
200 PM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014
Convection continues to gradually wane around the large circulation
of Lowell. The initial intensity remains 50 kt based on a blend of
the latest Dvorak Final-T and current intensity estimates from TAFB
and SAB. The cyclone is now over waters around 25C and will be
moving over waters of 22-23C by 36 hours. This should results in
Lowell becomes a post-tropical cyclone by that time, followed by
weakening to a remnant low in about 2 days.
The initial motion is 310/08. Lowell should continue moving
generally northwestward during the next 36 hours as a mid-level
ridge to the east builds westward. After that time, the weakening
cyclone is forecast to turn toward the west-northwest as it comes
under the influence of a low-level ridge to the north. The new NHC
forecast is a little to the left of the previous NHC track to
account for the initial position and it close to a consensus of the
GFS and ECMWF models.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/2100Z 22.4N 124.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 23.3N 125.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 24.4N 127.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 25.2N 128.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 24/1800Z 25.8N 129.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 25/1800Z 27.0N 132.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 26/1800Z 29.0N 136.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 27/1800Z 31.0N 141.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Brennan
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