ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122014 800 AM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014 Deep convection continues to gradually decrease around the large ragged eye-like feature of Lowell. The initial intensity has been lowered to 50 kt based on a blend of the latest Dvorak Final-T and current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. Lowell should continue to gradually weaken as it moves over cooler waters during the forecast period, and the cyclone should become post-tropical by 48 hours, and a remnant low by 72 hours. The initial motion is 315/09. Lowell should continue moving generally northwestward during the next 48 hours as a mid-level ridge to the east builds westward. After that time, the weakening cyclone should turn more west-northwestward as it comes under the influence of a low-level ridge to the north. The new NHC forecast is similar to the previous one and is close to the TVCE multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 22.1N 124.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 23.1N 125.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 24.3N 126.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 25.1N 127.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 25.9N 129.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 25/1200Z 27.2N 131.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/1200Z 29.1N 135.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 27/1200Z 31.0N 139.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brennan NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Wednesday, 31-Dec-2014 12:09:44 UTC