ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122014 800 PM PDT MON AUG 18 2014 The cyclone has become slightly better organized over the past several hours, although the center remains on the northeastern side of a large area of deep convection. Dvorak estimates have risen to 35 kt from both TAFB and SAB, so the initial wind speed is raised to that value. Lowell has a couple of days to intensify further while it remains over warm waters with moderate easterly shear. Only gradual strengthening is anticipated due to the large size of the system and its large radius of maximum winds. In a few days, the storm should traverse cooler waters and begin to slowly weaken. Model guidance is tightly clustered, and the new NHC intensity forecast is close to a blend of the previous interpolated forecast and the latest model consensus. The storm has turned a little more to the right and is now moving 295/6. Lowell is expected to move slowly northwestward and then northward over the next couple of days as it moves into a weakness in the subtropical ridge caused by an unseasonably strong deep-layer trough across the U.S. west coast. Little change was made to the previous NHC forecast in the first 48 hours with model guidance in excellent agreement. The trough should pass the storm by late Wednesday and then the subtropical ridge is expected to restrengthen, forcing Lowell to turn to the northwest at an increasing forward speed after day 3. Similar to the last forecast cycle, the guidance has shifted westward at longer range, and the NHC track prediction is moved in that direction. A northward surge of moisture into the southwestern United States, partly caused by the eastern portion of the cyclone's large circulation, is still forecast by most of the global models to occur by late Wednesday and Thursday. Please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service office for more details on a possible heavy rainfall threat. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 17.0N 118.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 17.4N 119.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 20/0000Z 18.0N 120.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 20/1200Z 18.6N 120.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 21/0000Z 19.3N 120.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 22/0000Z 21.0N 121.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 23/0000Z 23.4N 124.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 24/0000Z 25.5N 127.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Blake NNNN
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 31-Dec-2014 12:09:43 UTC