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Tropical Depression KARINA (Text)

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  54
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
200 AM PDT TUE AUG 26 2014

Karina continues to produce sufficient organized convection to be
considered a tropical cyclone despite ongoing easterly vertical
wind shear caused by the upper-level outflow from Hurricane Marie.
The initial intensity remains 30 kt, in agreement with a partial
ASCAT pass and satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. Due
to the ongoing shear, Karina is expected to degenerate into a
remnant low soon, and then be absorbed into the much larger Marie in
24 hours or so.

The initial motion is 100/3.  The cyclone is embedded in westerly
flow feeding into Marie, and a general east-southeastward motion
with some increase in forward speed is expected until the cyclone
is absorbed.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/0900Z 17.0N 127.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  26/1800Z 16.6N 126.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  27/0600Z...ABSORBED BY HURRICANE MARIE

$$
Forecaster Beven

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